It is easy to point to reasons why a tandem of “The Tonight Show With Conan O’Brien,” followed by “Late Night With Jimmy Fallon,” could spell disaster for NBC.
But there are three solid reasons why it won’t.
•Fallon is young. No current late-night host is within half a decade of Fallon in age (except Daly, who doesn’t count). So while it is tempting to draw comparisons between Fallon and another ex-“SNL” star, Chevy Chase, who flamed out during a brief and awful tenure as host of his own late-night talk show on Fox in 1993, the fact is that Chase was nearly 50 years old at the time, and advertisers were worried about his youth appeal.
•This is Lorne Michaels we’re talking about. Arguably the most powerful man at NBC after the dude who runs it, he will soon preside over three of its most storied franchises: “Tonight,” “Late Night” and “SNL.”
Michaels plucked O’Brien out of obscurity and made him so valuable to NBC that it asked Leno to step aside. For all the questionable choices over the years, there’s still a lot of gold in the Michaels touch. Just ask “SNL” alumna and “30 Rock” writer-producer-star Tina Fey.
•It’s about the desk, not who sits in it. For example, a lot of Leno’s success has depended on the team that gets the show on the air: segment producers, comedy writers and his show runner Debbie Vickers, the University of Kansas graduate who steered “Tonight” back from the brink in 1993, after NBC told Leno to fire his manager and turn around the ratings or else.
Assuming Michaels assembles another stellar crew to run “Late Night” as he did with “30 Rock” and the original “Late Night,” Fallon will be assured of success from the moment he steps on stage.