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Barack Obama should win the 2008 presidential election. I'm sure this will come as a shock to everyone...

Joe Biden won the 2008 vice presidential debate. On points, it was a slam-dunk. In context, it was a narrow win. But it was still a win. If Palin committed some clear, unspinnable, oh-my-god-I-can't-believe-she-said-that gaffe, then this election might be effectively over. There has just been too mu

Barack Obama won the first 2008 presidential debate hosted by Jim Lehrer. This was really supposed to be McCain's debate. It wasn't. Obama was presidential, confident, assertive -- repeatedly addressing McCain directly while McCain did his fakey smiles and avoided eye contact. Purely in terms of the debate itself, I think O

Sarah Palin will not withdraw from the Republican ticket. I don't think so. If the National Enquirer story pans out, maybe. But I think that the admission of failure inherent in her leaving would be too damaging, especially this close to the election. McCain would be admitting that he didn't vet her adequatel

Sarah Palin was not a good choice for John McCain's vice presidential candidate. Oh. My. Goodness. I still can't quite believe this one. It seems that McCain made this decision quickly and rashly, and that she was not sufficiently vetted. I think that will harm him on two fronts -- first, the pick itself is just bad, and second,

Joseph Biden was a good choice for Obama's vice presidential candidate. I've been hoping for Joe as VP for a good long time. He's a witty attack dog, he's the sage elder at the young gun's right hand, he's got working-class ties, he's the poorest sitting senator, (all the better to push the "I forget how many houses I have"

Michelle Obama will be an asset for her husband in the general election. She's fab. She's smart, she's warm, she's funny. (I've met her!) She's a good balance for her husband -- it's really, really difficult to call her elitist, for example. I think that if she is attacked, that will ultimately backfire against the attacke

Barack Obama will win the 2008 presidential election. Last night's two speeches, back-to-back, said it all.

A presidential run in 2012 is not part of Hillary Clinton’s strategy. I never really liked this wording and I'm still not sure if I "get" it. I don't think she's purposely maiming Obama so she can run against McCain in 2008. I think there is something more complex at work; namely, she thinks she's the best candidate, by f

John McCain's age will affect his presidential campaign negatively. Especially if Obama is the competition. Tall, vital, athletic young guy vs. short, creaky, white-haired old guy. It's going to hurt McCain.

George W. Bush's comments to the Knesset were not appropriate. Two parts -- first, it was a stupid and inaccurate swipe. Second -- it was inappropriate to engage in that kind of partisan campaign politics in that context.

The Democratic presidential nominee will be decided before the convention. My prediction is that it'll be over by July 1st, with June 15th being possible.

Ralph Nader will have a minor impact on the 2008 Presidential Election.

Bob Barr will have an impact on John McCain's candidacy in the general election. I think he will hurt McCain a bit, both in terms of getting some votes himself and in terms of directing the discourse in a way that will drive some voters to Obama. Not a lot, but a little, and the way the last several elections have gone, even a little

Women should be allowed in forward support companies working with combat battalions. If they're physically qualified, sure. Not all women will be; not all men will be, either. I think the physical (and other) qualifications are more important than gender per se.

Cindy McCain should release her personal income tax returns. Transparency is a good thing.

Israel should not build settlements in the West Bank.

Barack Obama's association with Jeremiah Wright will not prevent him from winning the Democratic nomination. I was getting a flat tire repaired when Obama gave his latest speech about Wright (4/29/08). They had a waiting area that was set to CNN, and I watched along with this 50-ish, working-class white guy. He kept kinda snorting derisively and I thought "uh-

Congress should not suspend the gas and diesel tax from Memorial Day through Labor Day 2008. Seems like a band-aid at best and bribery at worst.

Undecided superdelegates should declare their preference for the Democratic presidential nominee before the convention. If they want to wait until "the voters have spoken," fine, wait until June 4th. But I absolutely think that undecided superdelegates should make their preferences known at that point and seal up the nomination. Waiting just gives McCain a bigger head st

Barack Obama's remark about small-town voters was not elitist.

Hillary Clinton should drop out of the presidential race. This is kind of hard. I, personally, think it would be GREAT if she dropped out. And I think there are ways she could do it gracefully. What I worry about is an ungraceful exit that muddies the waters. I don't want anyone to have any doubt that Obama

Superdelegates should not be able to shift the balance to one candidate if the majority of voters favored a different candidate. This was so hard to word and the final version gets at part of why. I think superdelegates should be ABLE to do this -- I think there are situations in which it makes sense. This year, in the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, I don't think

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama should not run on the same ticket. Too many of the same positives, too many of the same negatives, and neither of them will pull in too many voters that wouldn't already be there. I think Obama voters who are angry enough at Hillary to not vote for her would remain angry at Hillary but be

Al Gore will not endorse a candidate in the 2008 Democratic primary. I think if he was going to he would have already. I think he's going for the statesman, above-the-fray, conciliatory approach. If someone starts taking the lead OR if Hillary/ Bill do something really beyond the pale, he might endorse. But I don't th

Barack Obama benefits more from John Edwards' departure. I'm off the fence. Edwards' supporters are a pretty diverse group, so there isn't any one rationale that applies to all of them, and I previously thought that they'd break about equally for Hillary and Obama. I now think Obama will benefit a bit more, a

Ted Kennedy's endorsement will have a positive impact on Barack Obama's candidacy. I think it might hurt Obama a bit in the general election if he gets there, but I think this endorsement will help him get there!

Race will have no effect on Barack Obama's candidacy. I wish there was another option, but I choose this one because I think there are positive and negative elements that effectively cancel each other out. Hillary Clinton is the establishment candidate and the one to beat. It's way more inspiring to nomina

U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants should become citizens at birth.

People residing illegally in the United States should be offered a path to citizenship. In the last debate, the Republicans kept talking about illegal immigrants going "to the back of the line." That's a nice idea, but the problem is that it makes the assumption that there is a line -- that there is a way for everyone who wants to become a

There should be more measures restricting the right to own and carry a firearm.

The U.S. should allow dual citizenship.

John McCain should win the Republican nomination for President in 2008. I used to like McCain more than I do now -- he's pandered too often and in too many of the wrong ways. But he's the best of a bad lot. He's also one of the harder ones to beat, IMO -- so in that respect I'd prefer Huckabee, for example. But in terms of

Pat Robertson's endorsement will have no effect on Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign. Basically, I don't think anyone believed it for an instant. I think this was just the "keep Hillary out of the WHite House!" endorsement, and Giuliani seemed to be the one who had the best chance of doing so when Pat endorsed him. Didn't seem to help mu

Fred Thompson's late entrance will have a negative effect on his candidacy. Guy's waaay too laconic. Huckabee has taken the outsider niche. If Fred Thompson had shown more willingness to work -- including entering the race earlier -- he may have done a lot better.

Bill Clinton will have a negative effect on Hillary Clinton's campaign. He gets the crowds, and they loved him in NH and I think that helped her a lot. But he keeps going off-script, and he keeps grabbing the spotlight, and I think he'll end up being a net negative (though of course you could easily credit him for her HAVING

Gender will play a positive role in Hillary Clinton's presidential bid. I think there is real sexism out there. I think Hillary is also making hay from both real and perceived sexism.

Barack Obama has the best health care plan. Best combination of idealism and pragmatism. (I mean the health care plan, but I guess that goes for the candidate too...)

The early start to the 2008 presidential race will have a negative impact on the democratic process.

Michael Bloomberg should not run for President in 2008. His only role at this point is spoiler.