David Cote (writer) - Who will win the Tony Award for Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical?

"On merit, the capable O’Hara can’t compete with LuPone’s mind-altering tour de force."

Time Out New York / Issue 663 : Jun 11–17, 2008
2008 Tony Award predictions
Our very own stage pundits provide your guide to the gold.
By David Cote and Adam Feldman

[Note: Percentages below indicate the nominee’s chance of winning.]

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Patti LuPone, Gypsy 53%
Kelli O’Hara, South Pacific 42%
Faith Prince, A Catered Affair 2%
Jenna Russell, Sunday in the Park with George 2%
Kerry Butler, Xanadu 1%
The race: On merit, the capable O’Hara can’t compete with LuPone’s mind-altering tour de force. But the Tonys are more about buzz than honey, so she could score a deeply upsetting upset.